UK ELECTRIC VEHICLE AND BATTERY PRODUCTION POTENTIAL TO 2040

In June 2022 the Faraday Institution published an update to its study “UK Electric Vehicle and Battery Production Potential to 2040”, first published in 2019, and updated in March 2020. 

Key changes in assumptions and modelling in the Faraday Institution’s 2022 report relative to the 2020 study are:  

  • Consideration of the UK announcement to end the sales of new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030 and for all cars sold to be zero emissions capability by 2035. 
  • Inclusion of additional battery demand from commercial vehicles, HGVs, buses, micromobility and grid storage. 
  • Faster uptake trajectories for battery EVs at the expense of plug-in hybrid EVs, with BEVs having larger battery capacity on average.  
  • Using most up to date data on UK EV and ICE vehicle sales and a review of industry forecasts, as well as reflecting the downturn from the pandemic and the recent upturn as the global economy recovers. 

The result of these key changes for the 2022 report relative to the 2020 study are:  

  • Demand for UK EV battery manufacturing capacity of around 200 GWh per annum in 2040 (2020 report: 140 GWh per annum).  
  • The overall industry workforce of the automotive and EV battery ecosystem could grow by 100,000 jobs from 170,000 to 270,000 employees by 2040 (2020 report: growth of 50,000 jobs from 176,000 to 220,000 employees by 2040). 
  • Demand for ten UK gigafactories in the UK by 2040, with each factory having a manufacturing capacity of 20 GWh p.a. on average (2020 report: seven gigafactories producing 20 GWh p.a.). 
  • UK automotive industry is projected to manufacture around 1.8 million private cars and commercial vehicles in 2040 (2020 report 2.2 million in 2040)

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